This is a pretty big surprise, as Virginia is solidly blue at this point. This past year, the voters finally handed the majority in their General Assembly to Democrats, who promptly shoved unconstitutional, restrictive gun control measures down their throats. No worries though, Gov. Ralph Northam has raised the corrections budget to deal with enforcement. See, he can do something besides pose for racist pictures.
Given the recent swings, Trump was thought to be dead in Virginia, but a new poll has some unexpected news.
Mason-Dixon Virginia poll:
Biden 49, Trump 45
Trump 48, Warren 44
Trump 51, Sanders 45
Trump 47, Buttigieg 45
The poll respondents were 42% Dems, 30% GOP, and 28% independents… and Trump still beats 3 of them.
And Mason-Dixon is a B+ pollster on 538. https://t.co/YlHnU2C0Tm
— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) December 31, 2019
This isn’t some no-name, non-trustworthy poll either. It’s the Mason-Dixon poll, which enjoys a fairly solid track record (at least as solid as an election survey can be). Trump is shown beating Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and Pete Buttigieg. This is even as the makeup of the poll reflects the changing political demographics of the state, i.e. a majority, 42% of the respondents, were Democrats.
It’s fair to be skeptical of this result because of how blue Virginia has been trending, but this isn’t the first poll to show a similar result. A poll from VCU also shows Trump beating Sanders and within two points of Warren.
Obviously, Joe Biden would be the worst match-up for President Trump, and that continues to hold true here. He’s uniquely been able to remain competitive among blue-collar workers, even as the rest of the field have lost much of a chance at garnering that support due to their left-wing machinations. But Biden could be on the downswing after recently promising to destroy hundreds of thousands of jobs to make a “greener economy.” Just yesterday, the former VP told miners that they should learn to code after their jobs are eliminated. These are not the kinds of positions that will keep Biden strong in the rust belt once the general election cycle starts.
Regardless, even if we assume this poll is an outlier, the overall trends are very good for the incumbent. Trump has picked up support in key swing states, and for the first time since the race has started, he’s starting to lead multiple national polls as well. Impeachment has thoroughly backfired on Democrats and the great economy is helping people look past aspects of Trump’s personality they may not like. It’s been said before, but all he really has to do is sit back and let the left destroy themselves. If he can manage to restrain some of his more questionable instincts, the contrast between him and the socialists on the other side will carry him to victory.
One thing is clear, the President is looking far more likely to be re-elected today than he did three months ago, and that’s a great thing given his competition.