The United States of America is months away from holding another federal election and it is still unclear to tens of millions of Americans who actually won the 2020 election.
The Heartland Institute recently published a study to assess the probability of fraud in the 2020 election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden due to the prevalence of mail-in balloting.
Swing states in the 2020 election implemented unconstitutional measures to allow for mass mail-in voting under the pretext of the Covid pandemic without passing laws through the state legislature. Those states include Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, according to a lawsuit brought by Texas’ Attorney General Ken Paxton and filed in the U.S. Supreme Court. That case was ultimately dismissed for lack of standing, despite the state possessing original jurisdiction for the Supreme Court to hear legal disputes between states.
Thus, it is unresolved whether the use of “no excuse” mail-in ballots in certain swing states during the 2020 election was even legal and constitutional, in addition to the practical issue n of whether the practice led to a high degree of fraud (willful rigging of the election for a certain outcome) or malfeasance (invalid results arising due to failure to abide by election laws).
“These abrupt and hasty changes to voting procedures in the months before the 2020 election occurred despite the fact that ample evidence showed that mass mail-in voting, unsecure ballot drop boxes, ballot harvesting, and lack of signature verification would result in a flood of fraudulent ballots that would undermine the accuracy of the election results,” the Heartland Institute, a conservative think tank, remarks on the need for the study.
“This paper examines the likely impact that fraudulent mail-in ballots cast for both Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the 2020 election could have had upon the overall electoral results, based upon recently unearthed evidence indicating widespread mail-in voter fraud indeed occurred in the 2020 election,” the study’s authors note. “After summarizing the problems associated with mail-in voting, we discuss the results of a groundbreaking poll conducted by The Heartland Institute and Rasmussen Reports in November/ December 2023, which attempted to definitely assess the degree of fraudulent voting that took place in the 2020 election.”
“The results of the survey are nothing short of stunning, and upon their release, they sparked numerous conversations about the amount of fraud in the 2020 election and the potential impact of mail-in ballot fraud in future elections,” the authors add. “For example, former President Trump referred to the poll as ‘the biggest story of the year’ and ‘the most important poll released in the past 20 years’.”
“According to the results of the survey, a massive number of voters who cast ballots by mail admitted to committing at least one form of voter fraud in the 2020 election,” the survey authors stated.
These results include:
- 21 percent of mail-in voters admitted that in 2020 they voted in a state where they are “no longer a permanent resident.”
- 21 percent of mail-in voters admitted that they filled out a ballot for a friend or family member.
- 17 percent of mail-in voters said they signed a ballot for a friend or family member “with or without his or her permission.”
- 19 percent of mail-in voters said that a friend or family member filled out their ballot, in part or in full, on their behalf.
These actions constitute election fraud, depending on the state’s law where the action took place, or alternatively, these actions constitute an unacceptable violation of the bedrock election principle of “one voice, one vote.”
The authors then analyze the likelihood that Donald Trump wins the 2020 presidential race against Joe Biden if there were a fair and secure election.
“After analyzing the raw survey data, we were also able to conclude that 28.2 percent of respondents who voted by mail admitted to committing at least one kind of voter fraud,” the authors conclude. “This means that more than one-in-four ballots cast by mail in 2020 were likely cast fraudulently, and thus should not have been counted.”
“Because Joe Biden received significantly more mail in votes than Donald Trump, we conclude that the 2020 election outcome would have been different in the key swing states that Donald Trump lost by razor thin margins in 2020—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin— under the 28.2 percent scenario,” the study continues. “We also analyzed the electoral results for those six swing states under every integer from 27 percent fraud down to 1 percent fraud, allowing readers to see the impact that fraudulent mail-in ballots might have produced under each scenario.”
“We made a number of assumptions and gathered our data from a variety of sources in addition to our poll, which is detailed in the methodology and data sections,” the authors add.
In summary, the authors provide an analysis of the results state-by-state if mail-in ballots were invalidated due to non-conformity to state election law.
- 28.2 percent fraud
- Trump wins Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
- Trump wins the Electoral College 311-227.
- 27 percent fraud through 14 percent fraud
- From 27 percent fraud down through 14 percent, the overall results are identical to the 28.2 percent fraud scenario (though Trump’s margin of victory in each state shrinks as the overall mail-in ballot fraud integer shrinks).
- 13 percent fraud through 6 percent fraud
- Trump wins Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, but loses to Biden in Michigan and Nevada.
- Trump wins the Electoral College 289-249.
- 5 percent fraud and 4 percent fraud
- Trump wins Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin, but loses to Biden in Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
- Trump and Biden tie the Electoral College 269-269. As described in more detail in the paper, Trump would likely have won the resulting vote in the House of Representatives, because Republicans controlled more state delegations in the wake of the 2020 election.
- 3 percent fraud
- Trump wins Arizona and Georgia, but loses to Biden in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
- Biden wins the Electoral College 279-259.
- 2 percent fraud and 1 percent fraud
- Trump does not win any states. Biden wins Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
- Biden wins the Electoral College 306-232.
The full report can be read below:
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