With just days to go before the presidential election, early voting data out of the swing state of Florida bear good news for President Trump’s campaign.
Despite a majority of Democrats indicating an intent to vote early — compared to a Republican preference for Election Day voting — the Democratic lead in already-cast ballots is slimmer than expected.
On Thursday, the Democrat lead in early voting was only 3 points, at 41%-38%.
In 2016, Democrats held a significant edge over Republicans in early votes in Florida, but Republicans quickly erased that margin on Election Day, allowing Trump to carry the state. According to election experts watching the Sunshine State, the same thing could be shaping up for 2020 as the early voting results show Democrats “falling well short of what they would need.”
“Forbes polling indicates that roughly half of all voters plan to vote early, with 62 percent of Democrats planning to vote early while 72 percent of Republicans plan to wait and vote on Election Day,” explained The Hill’s John Pudner. “If that happened and independents split evenly (last time Trump won them), then Democrats would need to win early voting at least 70 percent to 30 percent to be on pace to barely overcome a 31 percent to 69 percent disadvantage in partisan Election Day votes.”
While swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio also all show Republicans holding the early vote advantage, Florida’s forecast is expected to be more accurate given that it makes voter registration information publicly available. The other swing states do not.
Florida is a perennial battleground state, with President Obama having won it for the Democrats in 2008 and 2012 before Trump flipped it to red in 2016.