Steven Rattner served as counselor to the Treasury secretary in former President Barack Obama’s administration — which doesn’t exactly make him the most likely individual to herald the notion that President Donald Trump is poised to win the 2020 election.
But that’s exactly what Rattner did Monday in an op-ed for the New York Times, taking note of multiple models showing that Trump will come out on top next November, based on the strength of the economy and his incumbent status.
Rattner first pointed out Yale professor Ray Fair’s model, which he said has proven very reliable given it predicted Obama would get 53.1 percent of the popular vote in 2008 (he actually totaled 53.7 percent) and 51.8 percent in 2012 as the incumbent — the latter figure was short of what Obama got by just two-tenths of 1 percent.
While Fair’s model showed Trump getting 54.1 percent of the vote while falling well short of that (48.8 percent), Rattner said he was “quite confident that the gap was a function of the generally unfavorable rankings on Mr. Trump’s personal qualities. In other words, a more ‘normal’ Republican would likely have won the popular vote by a substantial margin (instead of losing it by three million votes).” – READ MORE