All six of those states will be key to which political party controls the Senate. As of now, Republicans hold the slimmest majority of just 51 seats.
According to the Real Clear Politics poll of polls, Republicans currently enjoy comfortable leads in three of those states: Tennessee (+6.5), North Dakota (+10.6), and Texas (+7.0). But only North Dakota would be a Republican pickup from an incumbent Democrat.
In the remaining three states — Indiana, Florida, and Montana — the incumbent Democrats all enjoy two to three point leads.
But as we saw during the 2016 presidential election, the polls might be missing something — like an unexpected surge of Republican enthusiasm, which would be picked up in early voting statistics such as these. Remember, polls are weighted based on the pollsters guess of what the electorate will look like.
“The latest data suggests robust enthusiasm among early Republican voters that could put a dent in Democratic hopes for a ‘blue wave’ in next month’s midterm elections,” the far-left NBC wrote after analyzing this data from TargetSmart.
Only in Nevada, where Republican Sen. Dean Heller is struggling to hold his seat, are Democrat early voters outpacing Republicans. As of now, Heller is up just 1.7 percent in the Real Clear Politics poll of polls.