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Why Trump Won: What Hillary, DNC, Media, and Polling Missed

What happened on Tuesday with the expected final Landslide election tally of as much as 306 to 232 for Donald J. Trump for President, plus his down ballot effect to hold majorities in the House, and Senate unifying both branches under the GOP brand? I will offer my observations and analysis to join millions of other opinions. I believe it all came down to two words so crucial to pollsters, candidates, and campaigns through political polling and election process; “Likely Voters”.

Many will be analyzing the minutiae of demographics, incomes, gender, education, age, and so forth within the voting data for years to come. The establishment Party apparatchiks will enter the Data into Main Frame Supercomputers and crunch all the variables, and scenario’s they can think of to prevent, or duplicate the same result for themselves. They will be disappointed. Trump didn’t do that. Here is what my Gut, and humble observations tell me is why the Pollsters, Political and LameStream Media Pundits, the DNC, and Hillary Clinton were so wrong. Here is what they all missed that Donald J. Trump didn’t, and resulted in a historic Landslide victory that stunned the Nation, and World.

Pollsters in their quest for optimal accuracy search out “likely voters” as the “Holy Grail” for their polling contacts.

Excerpted from Washington Post article linked above Jan. 6th, 2016:

What are the chances you will vote in the 2016 general election? Did you vote in the 2012 presidential election?

These are the questions pollsters often use to identify “likely voters,” perhaps the most ubiquitous and least-understood phrase in election news — and for two big reasons:

  1. Pollsters employ widely differing methods for identifying likely voters (and many keep their methods under wraps)
  2. Research on the accuracy of likely voter identification is relatively rare, since checking whether respondents actually vote can be expensive.

After the first two questions are asked by pollsters and if the answer is NO to the SECOND question, they just end the poll session and move on to another contact. They are now counted as a “Not Likely ” and as a result are not polled.

Apathetic voters sick of the establishment corruption, gridlock, cronyism, for years have watched with frustration as societal changes were forced upon them like Obamacare, etc. They haven’t seen an Economic recovery in their neighborhoods, or jobs. Eventually voter apathy turns into anger, then action. These folks who sat out the past one, two, or more election cycles in disgust without voting because they didn’t see a difference in the corruption, or any representation for their values, election after election between the candidates of either party, finally had enough.

Their apathy, cynicism, and frustration finally reaches a limit, and then it turns into action. These Patriot’s armed themselves with the most obvious weapon of choice available to defend themselves, and their Country with; their Votes. These newly registered, and very motivated voters were armed, and ready; and they were probably also now invisible to polling data. These voters were missed because they hadn’t voted recently, or perhaps even ever. 

This posed a Conundrum for accurate Polling measurements. Now, you have these freshly registered voters, fed up with corruption, the status quo, all energized and looking for the nearest Polling booth to vote for change, BIG CHANGE. These voters are undetected and have now just “corrupted” perennially reliable polling models and methods used by the establishment Party Campaigns, Pundits, and Media going into the General Election of 2016; but signs were there right from the start of Primary season. Evidently the Left wasn’t paying attention, but the GOP establishment, and their candidates who were scattered like Bowling pins by the Trump Bowling Ball Primary examples, did.

It turned out that these voters, let’s assign Hillary’s label for them as “Deplorable’s” (which is ironic because she identified them, just failed to recognize their commitment or impact) were likely the most determined, and reliable voter group heading to the Polls on General Election Day.

These Deplorable’s, were Democrat, GOP, and Independent voting Patriots who were ready for change. Who would come from outside the establishment, to become their Champion, leader, and “Swamp Drainer”? Dr. Ben Carson had early success,  and Polling leads (Dr. Carson was my early GOP choice for an anti-establishment Candidate and change agent) and he seemed to have met those requirements as an outsider that mirrored their positions on issues. However, these Deplorable’s were hungry, thirsting, and full of angry determination for change!  No more Mr. nice guys, like McCain, Romney, or even now the gentlemanly Dr. Ben Carson.

Drastic times called for drastic choices. These new Deplorable’s were agents of change in search of an appropriate home, or vessel to effectively wield their voting weapon with. They needed, and required, someone that would willingly kick in the teeth of both Washington D.C. Party establishments. Dr. Carson’s polling, and large early lead evaporated as fast as voters recognized by his soft-spoken nice-as-could be manner, that he wouldn’t be the one to take off his shoes and kick, let alone even punch anyone’s teeth in.  Enter stage Right, one Donald J. Trump.

In Trump, these American voters found their Populist vessel and voice in a most surprising choice. They chose a Billionaire Yankee candidate that lives in a three floor Penthouse atop NYC’s Trump Tower, seemingly defying all reason, and logic; to become their chosen leader for their Populist anti-establishment uprising.

In Trump they found someone that listened to them, and spoke directly to them, for them. He did so not as a patronizing elitist, but in plain non-politically correct, and unapologetic language about their issues of concern, and for decline they both saw in America. Because of Trump’s Wealth, he was able to fulfill the first of one of their most important points of contention in Politics. Freedom from the Corruption by Lobbyists and special Interest  Money, and Influence. He was able to rise above the influences that were affecting policy on spending, trade, immigration, economy, and jobs. Trump promised to be their Voice, and their Champion. He would “Drain the Swamp”, end the Corruption, and the Potomac Establishment two-step.

It would start with Hillary Clinton’s defeat. Hillary represented the Poster girl for all they detested. She was the worst possible Candidate for the Democrats given the undetected Perfect Storm brewing under the radar for this Election. Hillary was a weak candidate with inter-party loyalty issues, vulnerable to just such a Populist message. She would not draw the African-American, or Minority votes of her predecessor for the past two election cycles for a variety of obvious reasons. She was incessantly mired in scandal, corruption, and was not trusted as a proven serial Liar. The addition of Wiki Leaks affirming her two-faced public and private persona’s to voters, was the final straw. Throw in an ongoing “pay to play” FBI investigation of her Clinton Foundation, and again over her “carelessness” in managing and securing U.S. intelligence on her personal email server, and there is your recipe for political disaster.

A protester holds a sign with Hillary's prior statements about 'Black Super-Predators being Heeled'
A protester holds a sign with Hillary’s prior statement about ‘Black Super-Predators’  “We have to bring them to heel.”

While most of us believed Trump was fighting an uphill battle, unbeknownst to all, and Hillary at the time; the complete opposite was really true. Hillary and her party, the media and the pollsters, would live in blissful ignorance to the end, secure in the over-confidence supplied by corrupted polling data; oblivious to the Landslide of reality about to befall them.

The Deplorable voters responded. Registered to vote, and came out to support Trump in the nomination process in record numbers winning him more Primary votes for a GOP candidate than ever in Party history. Especially impressive given it was within a crowded field of 17 original candidates that he literally demolished in securing his GOP Nomination. That was Trump 1.0 and Trump 2.0 was yet to come. Trump tipped his hand with his Primary season success, and example. Now it was time for Trump 2.0 to meet Hillary, at the Final Table.

I wrote then after he secured the Primary delegates pre-convention of positive indicators during the GOP Primary, and why I thought then that Trump was electable. I thought he could win, and suggested in that article why he shouldn’t be under-estimated by the longtime GOP grassroots, and GOP establishment upset by his choice as the nominee.

In the above linked article published on July 19th, 2016, I stated/wrote this post- primary, Trump’s delegates in hand.

Give Mr. Trump credit, he tapped into the emotions, sentiments, and frustrations of a lot of angry voters. He heard them, and he fed them the simple, unvarnished red-meat truth’s they wanted to hear. I didn’t approve of, or think he would succeed with his methods lacking civility, and devoid of respect for others (candidates), but you can’t argue with the results.  (emphasis for context added is mine)

Trump’s GOP Primary victory should have served ample and clear notice to Hillary Clinton, and the DNC, Pollsters, and LameStream media wonks, that Trump was not to be taken lightly. It wasn’t. Hillary and Democrats were too busy salivating like Pavlov dogs, high-fiving each other and relishing the prospect of crushing the hapless Trump in the General Election. I mean after all, what chance does he have with their Electoral College advantage, right?

They should have been asking some very important questions. Questions like, Why did Trump wipe-out a field of 16 GOP candidates,  95% of which possessed more political experience and gravitas than he did? How did he do so with the most GOP Primary election votes ever, even within a crowded 17 candidate field? Why didn’t our own internal polling or the external polling measure the popularity of the Trump Phenomenon and Nomination result? At one point in mid September, an exasperated Clinton did ask the question “Why aren’t I 50 pts. ahead” of Trump? in the race. It was a question nobody in her campaign or pollsters, evidently answered before Election Day. There were early indicators that this wasn’t going to be a business as usual election, with the Businessman candidacy of Trump. From the first exit polling results in the NE and Midwest, the oversight of the Deplorable’s lack of pre-election polling inclusion and exit polling became clearly evident. The rout was on and it wouldn’t stop until the wee hours.

I also wrote this in my earlier article about Trump just before the Convention, in July noting a trend that Trump echoed to the Establishment, insisting correctly that he was “Growing the Party with new Voters” and warning against any Convention rules or selection Hanky-Panky:

Trump is showing that he can learn from others, respect other points of view, and doesn’t have to hold grudges that could prove harmful to his election and governance as President. I like what I am seeing. I think voters and Americans are starting to also. Trump is shoring up support within the GOP with 80% saying they now support him in the latest Rasmussen poll.  He is pulling a lot of Democrats from Hillary as a lower percentage of Democrats support her than Trumps GOP supporters.  (emphasis is mine)

Trump rejected the big interests and their big money, and the expectations for political patronage that came with those donations. Trumps lean, mean machine packed the folks into rally after rally, in every part of the country, in big Democratic stronghold cities like Detroit even in states forgotten or written off by the GOP as Blue States. North, South, East, West, and especially the Midwest, the Heartland took his message and plans, to heart. Trump energized the huge standing room crowds at 20,000+ seat venues, as more waited outside in lines to attend.

trump-rally
Large, enthusiastic Trump Arena/Stadium crowd. Events like this were commonplace during his campaign, even when his supporters had to run the gauntlet of violent, anti-Trump protesters before, and after the events.

Hillary comparable enthusiasm? Not so much. Scores of events, with dozens, perhaps hundreds of supporters attending. In many venues they had to move folks around to fill seats in front so the Media camera’s wouldn’t capture the low attendance. The LameSteam media, rarely, or accurately reported on the lack of enthusiasm, or attendance at Hillary events, this media bias and out-right collusion was confirmed by the recent Wiki Leaks emails.

hillary-fail-rally-575x431
Sparsely attended Hillary Campaign event.

Donald had less than half the resources without Big Donors and Special interest money. Hillary with the DNC’s, Special Interest/Labor, and PAC allies, outspent Trump collectively by over 2 to 1. Her human resources were even greater than a 2 to 1 ratio. In fact 2016 was the most disparately under-financed successful Presidential campaign measured since 1960. Trump spent about $5 bucks per vote, vs. Hillary’s $10 bucks per vote.  In this comparison, Trump has already demonstrated fiscal responsibility with this Campaign spending. His innovative techniques, and business savvy showed his acumen both in the Primary, and General Elections. It proved that less can accomplish more. In the end, that remarkable spending inequality didn’t matter.

historical-presidential-campaign-spending

Issues mattered. Especially for those who were “Mad as Hell” and wouldn’t take it any more. The “Deplorable” Americans found their way to the polls for the first time in years; or even perhaps for the first time ever. They put Trump in the White House, secured a GOP Majority in the House and Senate, and ensured Constitutionalism would reign for perhaps generations to come on the Supreme Court.

Donald J. Trump found them. Trump heard them. They responded, and rewarded him in historic fashion with an awesome and great responsibility. I guess the most graphic display of who heard the voters is represented with a 2016 Red Popular Vote distribution map parody comparing Trump supporters to a Verizon coverage Map and the slogan “Can you hear US now?”

 

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Trump Did.

enVolve-Trump-is-not-racist-video

I hope and pray that American’s can come together and heal. Grant Trump your support and give him a chance. I hope that American’s will be offering prayers and support for him, and for the leadership of both Parties and our Nation. America needs this as he embarks on this most important and yuuuuuge task of his life to….  Make America Great Again!

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Written by Michael R. Bednarz

Jesus follower. Entrepreneur, Life-long Conservative, Political Junkie.

My writing mission....... Providing enlightened political insight, wit, and informed commentary as the antidote for the LameStream Media.

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